Telephone: 01539 725855 – no phone menus – talk to a real person today who can direct you to what you need
Menu

"The year that has just passed was one that managed to confound most expectations.

It would have been a bold strategist who this time last year, forecast the oil price to halve from $112 per barrel. Yet today, a barrel costs $58.

Similarly, no one was looking for a significant fall in yields in quality government bonds. There was an almost universal prediction for a gentle rise through 2014; yet the UK 10 year gilt has fallen from a yield of 3% to back under 2%. The story is the same in the US, and Germany has seen even bigger declines due to low inflation in the Eurozone.

Politics and geopolitics are always hard to predict, but a few of the headlines have been even more outside the box than usual: Russia annexing Crimea; the closeness of the Scottish Referendum vote in the UK; the US recognising Cuba once more; the rise of ISIS in the Middle East...A year like 2014 only serves to illustrate that specific events are very rarely foreseeable, and their impact on financial markets even less so.

Nevertheless, attempting to identify broad trends in the direction of markets and economies is not a pointless exercise. In the attached note we’ll paint a broad roadmap for the near future, as we see it currently with our “strategic” hat on. Then as investment managers, we can act much as a sat-nav does, adjusting the route as new facts emerge about traffic, tolls and speed cameras."

Seven Investment Management (7IM)

More from our blog

  • Blog image

    “It’s easy to be negative but, in our view, 2015 presents greater downside risks and the possibility of volatility spikes across all asset classes. This is particularly if Europe is persistently weak

  • Blog image

    It has been just over a month now since we were handed the keys to our first ‘proper’ house… and what a month it has been!

    I (naïvely) assumed that the stress of buying a house was far behind us, but

  • Last week saw the launch of Pensioner Bonds from the NS&I. The idea behind them is to give pensioners a higher return on their savings than they are currently achieving in their Bank and Building

Notices and promotions

  • Learn more...

  • Click to Subscribe to Our Newsletter
© Financial Management Bureau Ltd 2011 - 2017. All rights reserved.
Financial Management Bureau Ltd is a limited company registered in England and Wales. Registered office: Shenstone House, Helsington, Kendal, Cumbria LA8 8AA. Registered number: 02089786